Terse views for 2009

A few essential tenets of my views

1. We are witnessing the end of the American Empire – the US will rejoin the 8 or 10 wealthiest nations at about the mid-point of the prosperity scale – AFTER repaying its long-standing karmic debts of empire – in about 2050. The period from now – 2008 – until then will be one of substantial turbulence as the US adjusts to a much lower standard of living.

2. The demise of the US dollar as an international purchasing medium. For periods of time, in a time perhaps not far off, NO amount of US dollars or its successor will be able to purchase gold.

3. An impending large scale military defeat. Historically, when empires end they do so with large military defeats.

4. The American Experiment in Liberty and Democracy is over and we have already reverted back to the much more normal style of governance the human condition have put upon themselves over the millennia – a tyranny of the State.

As the US has been under the increasing dictatorship of a Military-Industrial complex since it began keeping a standing armed force after the ‘Greatest Generation’ won WW2, its democracy and personal liberties have slipped away almost unnoticed. The US has failed to prevail in its 3^rd consecutive major conflict since WW2, it has continued to send $Bs out of the country WEEKLY on ill-advised Presidential wars that almost no one has really protested, all the while allowing these half-hearted military actions to be financed by essentially devaluing what was once the US prize possession – the US dollar.

This is the mechanism that attempted to finance the US’s last military debacle, the Vietnam War, in which that Texas guns-and-butter President devalued the US currency to pay for the war. Silver coinage disappeared – remember big clunky 50 cent pieces? – and Nixon, the turkey who ended up holding the financial bag, took the US off the gold standard totally.

Coupled with my own prediction of the demise of the magic money making machine – the Federal Reserve – which few Americans know anything about, my view is the US is facing a depression much worse than the 1930’s. This is the end of the entire system of deficit financing that began with the creation of ‘The Creature from Jekyll Island’ AND the income tax.

With the demise of the Fed will come the end of the capacity of the US to tap the savings of the rest of the world. After a long year period of relatively stable purchasing power the value of the US dollar has dropped about 97% since the founding of the Federal Reserve.

Attendant minutiae

1. In 1913 twenty US dollars bought one ounce of gold – in 2008 it takes about 900 US dollars to buy one ounce of gold. The total number of US dollars – M3, which the Federal Reserve has refused to publish for the last 3 years – divided by the total number of ounces of gold supposedly in ‘Fort Knox’ or wherever, since it has not been audited since 1972 - equals about $4000. This suggests the current price of gold is being substantially suppressed.

2. "Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. . . No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare." James Madison, Political Observations, 1795

“Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis warned, "The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in the insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning but without understanding." The freedom of individuals from compulsion or coercion never was, and is not now, the normal state of human affairs. The normal state for the ordinary person is tyranny, arbitrary control and abuse mainly by their own government. While imperfect in its execution, the founders of our nation sought to make an exception to this ugly part of mankind's history. Unfortunately, at the urging of the American people, we are unwittingly in the process of returning to mankind's normal state of affairs.” Destroying Liberty - A MINORITY VIEW, WALTER E. WILLIAMS

“But war is always a dangerous thing and brings with it destruction and devastation. Therefore, it should not be resorted to rashly but, like a poisonous drug, should be used as a last recourse. The justifying cause of a war, and clear and intelligible war aims, ought to be explained to the people by an experienced leader. Unless there is a quite definite war aim to which the people can consciously pledge themselves, the unity and strength and conviction that lead to victory will not be forthcoming. But the leader must also look to it that the passion of war and the delirium of victory do not give rise to unjust acts that will not meet with general approval. If justice and perseverance are the basis of action, all goes well.” hexagram 7, The Army, pg 32, I Ching – The Book of changes, Richard Wilhelm, Bollingen Edition, Princeton University Press

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/92.html

3. Sun Tzu said:

The art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.

It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on.

The captured soldiers should be kindly treated and kept. This is called, using the conquered foe to augment one's own strength.

In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns.

It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on.

[That is, with rapidity. Only one who knows the disastrous effects of a long war can realize the supreme importance of rapidity in bringing it to a close.

Thus it may be known that the leader of armies is the arbiter of the people's fate, the man on whom it depends whether the nation shall be in peace or in peril.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.

[Li Ch`uan cites the case of Fu Chien, prince of Ch`in, who in 383 A.D. marched with a vast army against the Chin Emperor. When warned not to despise an enemy who could command the services of such men as Hsieh An and Huan Ch`ung, he boastfully replied: "I have the population of eight provinces at my back, infantry and horsemen to the number of one million; why, they could dam up the Yangtsze River itself by merely throwing their whips into the stream. What danger have I to fear?" Nevertheless, his forces were soon after disastrously routed at the Fei River, and he was obliged to beat a hasty retreat.]

If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.

Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.

Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays.

In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too, it is better to recapture an army entire than to destroy it, to capture a regiment, a detachment or a company entire than to destroy them.

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy's plans;